Posted by Tom McCarthy on January 27, 2018 03:30:03 It is one of the great myths of the American political scene that the GOP’s presidential nominee Donald Trump won’t win in 2020.
And yet Trump’s party has already built a virtual fortress on the House floor that will be home to many of his most loyal supporters in 2020, and his supporters are preparing to make it their home for the foreseeable future.
For a time, Democrats were able to use their House majority to block Trump, even as his party took back the Senate and pushed through legislation that would have stripped millions of Americans of health care and public education benefits.
But when Republicans recaptured the House in 2018, Democrats quickly rewrote their rules to deny Trump the majority they’d built, even though Republicans controlled the Senate.
Since then, Democrats have used the House as their primary battleground to attack Trump, while Trump has turned his attention to dismantling the GOP-controlled Senate.
So what is the Republican House strategy?
A Trump win would be a huge boon to the GOP and would cement the GOP as the party of Trumpism, and thus a powerful force in the Senate, which, by 2020, will likely be controlled by the Democrats.
Trump won a clear majority in the House, and he would have control over both the Senate—and the majority that the Senate can use to ram through whatever bills he wants—if he had won the election.
This means that a Trump win in the 2018 midterm elections would have left Democrats in a better position to push through whatever legislative priorities they wanted to put forward in the future, even if they couldn’t take back the House.
Trump would have a lot of power over his party in the coming years, especially if the Republicans’ control of Congress is further weakened by 2020.
In the short term, this would also mean that Trump would be able to roll back other Democratic policies, including some of the party’s most progressive policies.
A Trump victory would also force Democrats to confront a real existential threat: They’d be under no legal obligation to follow through on their promise to repeal and replace Obamacare, which is unpopular and politically untenable in a presidential election year.
This will not only undermine the GOP agenda, but it also puts the GOP at a real disadvantage in the 2020 midterm elections.
The GOP is already building a virtual fort in the Republican-controlled House, which would give it a lot more control over the next few years.
The Republican House majority will also give the party more leverage in the Supreme Court and the judiciary.
Trump has been in office for less than two months, but he’s already moved to rollback several Obama-era rules that he considered too liberal.
In addition, Trump’s victory would make it harder for Democrats to make their own legislative breakthroughs in the near future.
In fact, Trump and the GOP will probably have to use the legislative power of the presidency to push ahead with the agenda they’ve been pursuing for years.
But the GOP is unlikely to win a House majority without a solid base of support, which means the GOP can rely on the Democratic base to rally around them.
It’s also worth noting that, at the end of 2020, Trump will likely need to win the Electoral College to secure the presidency.
But he’s unlikely to need to do that if he doesn’t take the House majority in 2020 and take control of both chambers in 2020 or 2021.
The Trump Presidency will not end at 2020, but the Republican Party will not be as strong in 2020 as it would be in 2018.
This is because Democrats have a big problem in their midterm election campaign, which they’ve built on a false premise that Trump will be a “good” president who will keep the Republicans in power.
Democrats are currently in a very vulnerable position because they have no plausible path to win back the majority in Congress that they lost in 2018 in the midterm elections, which meant that Democrats could have had a difficult time retaking the House of Representatives in 2020 if they had won in 2018 and kept the White House.
But if the GOP takes back the White house, it would put the Democrats in the best position to move forward with any legislative agenda they may have in the short-term.
The House is also the most vulnerable Senate seat in the country.
If Democrats lose control of the Senate in 2020 (they are currently favored to do so), the Republicans will likely have to pick a Senate candidate who can defeat an incumbent Democrat in a two-party primary, or take the seat in a four-way race.
This would require a Democratic candidate to win at least one of five states—Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Utah—in which the Republican candidate is running for reelection.
That candidate would need to run against a Democrat in each of those states.
The Democratic candidate would also have to defeat a Republican in each state where Democrats are running for re-election.
The result is that a Democratic Senate candidate would have to win all five